Safe Passage : 4CASTA

4CASTA aggregates & analyses external & internal risks capacity and efficiency in organisations.

Safe Passage has made a methodological break-through in the analysis of organisations.

Stationarity is a mathematical concept that is used to analyse the performance of a data series over time. We have adapted it for monitoring and forecasting the performance of organisations.
Safe Passage evaluates performance by measuring Stationarity/Non-Stationarity in the organisation as a whole and/or in discrete areas and regions of the organisation.

As rates on stationarity and non-stationarity change, so every organisation has its own stationarity ranges - a little like a pulse in a human body.

The key challenge in any analytic model is to be able to identify changes relative to a norm. Political Forensics, drawing on the mathematical and sociological modelling of stationary & non-stationary series is able to:

Determine the normal ranges of stationarity in an organisation

Develop organisational benchmarks according to selected measures: periods of management change, high performance, weak performance and so on

Identify when the organisation or parts of the organisation is exhibiting unusual behaviour

Using sociological techniques to generate diagnostic and predictive scenarios

featured case studies

Public Service Commission – the Data Speaks

In a study for a South African government agency we sought to understand why there was very low staff engagement.

Steinhoff: plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.

At Steinhoff our model triggers an alert in 2014 as the company becomes hyper stationary.

Eskom: A tale of systemic instability

Using data from the public domain, we have considered key staff segments in Eskom and analysed the temporality or temporal structure of each.